National Association of Realtors

Sales of newly built U.S. single-family homes fell unexpectedly in December, data from the Commerce Department showed Wednesday. Sales fell 7.6 percent to a 342,000 unit annual rate from an upwardly revised 370,000 units in November. It was the second straight month that new home sales declined.

“It could take up to a decade for many homeowners to regain equity in their homes, while some people in the hardest-hit regions of the country may not see a recovery during their lifetime.”

Brent T. White

(Article in English, link to press release)

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected new home sales to increase to a 370,000 unit annual pace from November’s previously reported 355,000 units.

New home sales for the whole of 2009 fell 22.9 percent to a record low 374,000 units, the department said.

The latest indication that the government-led housing recovery might be losing some steam.

The housing market recovery is showing some signs of fatigue after a surge in sales as first-time buyers rushed to take advantage of a popular tax credit, which had been scheduled to expire in November.

It has since been expanded and extended until June this year and while analysts expect home sales to pick up as a result, they reckon the pace will not be as strong as witnessed with the initial tax credit.

The housing market was the main catalyst of the most painful downturn in 70 years and renewed weakness could hobble the economic recovery.

The number of new homes on the market last month dropped 1.7 percent to 231,000 units, the lowest level since April 1971. However, December’s weak sales pace left the supply of homes available for sale at 8.1 months’ worth, the highest since June 2009, from 7.6 months in November.

May Never See a Recovery

Even as the housing market shows signs of improvement, including in new data released Tuesday, economists warn that it could take up to a decade for many homeowners to regain equity in their homes, while some people in the hardest-hit regions of the country may not see a recovery during their lifetime.

“What are we going to do down the road when people who should have been saving for retirement, or college funds, are spending that money instead staying current on their underwater home?” says Brent T. White, a University of Arizona law school professor who has studied underwater borrowers.

“We’re just not convinced that the housing market can stand on its own two feet without the fiscal support of the tax credit,” says Paul Dales, an economist for Capital Economics, a research firm.

“There is no clear sign of a sustained, broad-based recovery,” says David Blitzer, chairman of S&P’s index committee.

Even after the housing market stabilizes, it will take years for some owners to see the value of their homes appreciate. About 25 percent of homeowners owe more than their home is worth, according to data from First American CoreLogic, a research firm.

While it has historically taken five to 10 years for home prices to regain losses after a major downturn, analysts says, it is likely to take much longer this time, particularly in parts of the country that have seen the steepest declines.

“In California, Florida, in the ground-zero zones, it could take 15 years to fully recover,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.

Press Release.

Statement.

The Housing Market Isn’t as Bad as New Numbers Indicate (online.wsj.com)
Signs of Life in Housing (online.wsj.com)
U.S. housing starts unexpectedly fall in December (financialpost.com)
Home Sales Up Slightly but Prices Fall (nytimes.com)
Sales of New Homes Forecast to Rise 2 Percent (abcnews.go.com)
Home prices may be bottoming out (money.cnn.com)
Homebuilding forecast: Modest growth in 2010 (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
July new U.S. home sales up 9.6% (thestar.com)
New Home Sales Likely Rose in December (abcnews.go.com)

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Det amerikanske aksjemarkedet har lagt bak seg et fantastisk tredje kvartal og har hentet inn cirka to tredjedeler av fallet fra toppen i fjor. Oppgangen har vært drevet av håp om at den økonomiske veksten ville bli positiv igjen i andre halvår. Det er en risikabel strategi.

Det kan se ut som om stemningen på Wall Street er i ferd med å snu fra ekstrem optimisme til en kanskje like ekstrem pessimisme.

Det er kommet flere viktige nøkkeltall som har overrasket negativt.

Torsdag kommer en ny kalddusj fra The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index som falt til 52.6 i september. Det var forventet at indeksen ville ligge rundt 54.

Stemningen ble ikke bedre av siste ukes oversikt fra arbeidsmarkedet som viser en økning i antall førstegangssøkende til arbeidsledighetstrygd på 17 000 personer.

De tre ledende aksjeindeksen tar det dypeste dykket på tre måneder med fall på mellom 2,1 og 3,1 prosent.

I løpet av den siste uken er det ting som tyder på at det har etablert seg et negativt momentum i det amerikanske aksjemarkedet, viser Grunder/Økonomisk Rapport sine enkle analyser.

Standard & Poor’s 500

Dow Jones

Nasdaq Composite

Flere tekniske indikatorer gir nå “bearish” signaler. Vi ser nærmere på den brede S&P’s 500 indeksen; først momentum-indikatoren:

On-Balance Volume indicator sier noe om salgspresset i markedet. Det svinger kraftig som vi ser, men trenderer nedover.

Bull Frorce indicator reflekterer “bullish bets” i markedet, altså hvor mange som tror på oppgang.

Men det er ikke lett å spå om det amerikanske aksjemarkedet for tiden. Til det er volumet for lavt, den psykologiske faktor for høy og de fundamentale forholdene for usikere.

Torsdag styrter forvalterne over i statsobligasjoner med pengene sine, og dollarkursen gjør et solid comeback.

Det er vel bare en tilfeldighet at det amerikanske finansdepartementet i dag annonserer en ny auksjon av statsobligasjoner for til sammen 138 milliarder dollar.

“Overvurdert og manipulert”

Den ellers så sindige analytikeren Joe Saluzzi hot Themis Trading har tydeligvis fått nok av aksjemarkedets uberegnelige adferd.

I et intervju med Bloomberg Television torsdag gir han både tv-produsenten og sine kollegaer bakoversveis med en kraftsalve vi aldri har hørt før fra Saluzzi.

– Markedet er overvurdert og manipulert, fastslår den anerkjente økonomen og legger til at håp ikke er noen god tradingstrategi.

Se intervjuet med Joe Saluzzi her: