Tag Archives: New York University

Roubini: Federal Reserve Out of Ammo

“The US remains on course either for a double dip recession or growth that is so sluggish that it has a recessionary feel,” says Professor Nouriel Roubini of the Stern School at New York University.

Talkking with James Blitz at this year’s Ambrosetti Forum in Italy, Roubini says there are few if any options for policy-makers to stimulate the economy – and that a new round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve will be ineffective.

Here’s the interview from Financial Times:

(Click to play)

Robert Shiller Says Double Dip Imminent

Albert Edwards Sees S&P500 Returning To 1982-Level at 450 Points

El-Erian: Economy Losing Momentum For Recovery

Rosenberg Says US Virtually Certain To Fall Back Into Recession

Welcome To The Double-Dip!

China To Invest In Nassim Taleb’s Bear Fund

*

GovMint.com- Best Source for Coins Worldwide

3 Comments

Filed under International Econnomic Politics, National Economic Politics

China To Invest In Nassim Taleb's Bear Fund

It’s a pretty strong signal: China’s Sovereign-Wealth Fund is in talks with Black-Swan-author Nassim Taleb’s Hedge Fund, Universa’s Bearish Wagers, The Wall Street Journal reports. China is said to be willing to invest between 6 and 10 billion dollar in the fund that gives a payout of  60% if the market drops 20%. Some of the world’s biggest investors are planning to do the same.

“Stocks are not a robust investment. Make sure you have a garden that bears fruits.”

Nassim Nicolas Taleb


The famous author, philosopher and Wall Street trader, professor Nassim Nicholas Taleb was in his native northern Lebanon last week, thinking about instability in the pricing of goods and services. He suggests that investors around the world strap in for a wild ride of deflation and inflation. And says it therefore makes sense for him to pour money into farming, especially olives, which are indispensable to the Mediterranean world.

The mathematical finance scholar who lectures at New York University and wrote the 2007 book “The Black Swan” says he is as pessimistic as ever about the prospects for sustained global economic recovery.

He suggests that investors around the world strap in for a wild ride of deflation and inflation. And, therefore, he said, it makes sense for him to pour money into farming, especially olives, which are indispensable to the Mediterranean world, The Wall Street Journal writes.

“Healthy investments are those that produce goods that humans need to consume, not flat-screen TVs,” Mr. Taleb says over the phone from near his family’s ancestral home in Amioun.

“Stocks are not a robust investment. Make sure you have a garden that bears fruits.”

In For A Wild Ride

Nassim Nicholas Taleb also says investors around the world should strap in for a wild ride of deflation and inflation.

Some of the world’s biggest investors are planting the same seeds, according to WSJ.com.

The Santa Monica, Calif., investment firm Mr. Taleb helped start and still advises, Universa Investments LP, is in talks with China’s $300 billion sovereign-wealth fund, China Investment Corp., and Middle East government funds about investing in Universa, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Specifically, sovereign-wealth funds are willing to pay the firm in the hopes that if the market dives, at least some part of their portfolio will profit.

Panic is a profit-driver for Mr. Taleb, who has gained renown for his pessimism, a viewpoint that proved prescient in the market collapse of 2008.

The interest from the likes of the Chinese and Middle East funds, which control some of the world’s biggest pools of money, suggests more mainstream adoption of Universa’s bearish conviction.

The outcome of the talks isn’t certain, according to a person familiar with the matter.

But if the investments materialize, they likely would boost the Universa fund’s client assets from $6 billion to about $10 billion, two people familiar with the matter says.

CIC didn’t respond to a request for comment by the WSJ.

“Healthy investments are those that produce goods that humans need to consume, not flat-screen TVs. … Stocks are not a robust investment. Make sure you have a garden that bears fruits.”

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of ‘The Black Swan’

Read the full post at The Swapper.

Related by the Econotwist:

Espen Haug: “Strategic Reserves”

Welcome To The Double-Dip!

A Report To Make You Go “Hmmm…”

Investors; Fasten Your Seatbelts!

So, You Thought BP Was An OIL Company?

2010 Analysis: “11 Black Swans”

China: “Mother of All Black Swans”

New Testimony From Taleb

Nassim Taleb’s Favorite Books

2010 Analysis: The Road to Disaster

Paul Tudor Jones Swings Sword And Use The “F-Word”

*

*

Select Your Language:

Français * Italiano * Deutsch * Português * Español* Русский * العربية * Svenska* 中文 * 日本語

3 Comments

Filed under International Econnomic Politics, National Economic Politics

Roubini: "The Worst Is Yet To Come"

“Think the worst is over? Wrong.” professor Nouriel Roubini writes in his latest commentary. According to Mr. Roubini the U.S. unemployment rate will peak at 11% at the end of 2010, and will remain at high levels for at least 2 years. The damage to the ecomomy will be “extensive and severe” unless bold policy action is undertaken now.

 

 

“As a result of these terribly weak labor markets, we can expect weak recovery of consumption and economic growth; larger budget deficits; greater delinquencies in residential and commercial real estate and greater fall in home and commercial real estate prices; greater losses for banks and financial institutions on residential and commercial real estate mortgages, and in credit cards, auto loans and student loans and thus a greater rate of failures of banks; and greater protectionist pressures.”

Nouriel Roubini


(Article in Norwegian, link to original post in English).

nouriel-roubini.jpg

Tror du det verste er over? Feil, skriver professor Nouriel Roubini i en kommentar. – Skadene vil bli omfattende og betydelige om ikke modige politiske tiltak gjøres nå, mener Roubini.

“Think the worst is over? Wrong.”

Det fastslår professor Nouriel Roubini i en kommentar publisert i Daily News og på RGMs hjemmeside.

– Forholdene i det amerikanske arbeidsmarkedet er forferdelige, og blir bare verre. Mens den offisielle ledigheten allerede er 10,2 prosent, forsvant ytterlige 200 000 jobber i oktober. Inkluderes deltidsansatte og sykemeldte ligger tallet på ”whopping” 17,5 prosent, påpeker Roubini.

– Selv om 200 000 ferre arbeidsplasser per måned er bedre enn 700 000 som i januar, er fallet i sysselsettingen per måned over gjennomsnittet på 150 000 i de forrige resesjonene, tilføyer han.

– Husk også på at i den siste resesjonen som endte i november 2001, fortsatte sysselsettingen å falle i ett og et halvt år etter, frem til juni 2003. Det samme gjelder for resesjonen i 1990 til 1991.

Høy ledighet i minst 2 år

Nouriel Roubini mener vi derfor kan regne med at ledigheten i USA fortsetter å stige frem til slutten av 2010.

“Based on my best judgment, it is most likely that the unemployment rate will peak close to 11% and will remain at a very high level for two years or more.”

“This is very bad news but we must face facts. Many of the lost jobs are gone forever, including construction jobs, finance jobs and manufacturing jobs. Recent studies suggest that a quarter of U.S. jobs are fully out-sourceable over time to other countries.”

Må handles nå

Roubini kommer med en sterk oppfordring til politikere og myndigheter om at det må gjøres noe nå, ellers kan skadevirkningen i økonomien bli omfattende og betydelige, skriver han.

“As a result of these terribly weak labor markets, we can expect weak recovery of consumption and economic growth; larger budget deficits; greater delinquencies in residential and commercial real estate and greater fall in home and commercial real estate prices; greater losses for banks and financial institutions on residential and commercial real estate mortgages, and in credit cards, auto loans and student loans and thus a greater rate of failures of banks; and greater protectionist pressures.”

“The damage will be extensive and severe unless bold policy action is undertaken now.”

Nouriel Roubini er professor i økonomi ved Stern School of Business at New York University og styreleder i Roubini Global Economics.

Les hele kommentaren til professor Nouriel Roubini her. (Full article in English).

2 Comments

Filed under International Econnomic Politics, National Economic Politics