Tag Archives: Nevada

Signs Of Depression In The USA

Pessimism reigns with American public. The public is deeply dissatisfied with Congress, the two political parties and the broad direction of the country, according to a  new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. Just one in five approve of the job Congress is doing while a whopping 72 percent disapprove. Some are even talking about an armed revolution.

“Voters dissatisfied with the direction of government should take to second amendment remedies.”

Sharron Angle


The numbers in the survey are stark, the Washington Post writes. Just one in five approve of the job Congress is doing while a whopping 72 percent disapprove. Six in ten say that this Congress’ performance has been either below average  or “one of the worst.”  Just six percent describe it as “one of the best” or “above average”.

The two political parties fare little better. Thirty-three percent of the sample view the Democratic party positively while 44 percent view it negatively; the news is even worse for Republicans who are seen in a positive light by by 24 percent and a negative one by 46 percent – the worst showing ever for the GOP in the NBC/WSJ poll.

Pessimism Is Everywhere

At a more macro level, evidence of a persistent pessimism is everywhere. Less than one in three people believe the country is headed in the right direction while 58 percent believe it is off on the wrong track.

Nearly two-in-three of respondents says there is “still a ways to go” in the economic downturn as compared to 29 percent who says the economy had already hit the “bottom”.

The extent of the dissatisfaction apparent in this poll is not new – surveys have shown a public growing increasingly unhappy with the state of affairs in the country and the Congress for some time now – but does reinforce the idea that the final three months (or so) of the midterm campaign will be extremely unpredictable.

While Democrats will almost certainly bear the brunt of the pessimism running rampant in the country due to the fact that a) they control all levers of power in Washington and b) they hold far more seats in the House and the Senate, it’s clear that the public is far from sold on Republicans, or any politicians.

Something Totally Different

In an election cycle like this one, volatility appears to be the name of the game.

Rick Snyder

Rick Snyder

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The more unhappy voters are with the state of affairs in the country and the less conviction they have that politicians or Washington can fix it, the more they are open to change – to trying something (or someone) totally different.

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Victories by people like Rick Snyder, the wealthy businessman who rode his “one tough nerd” slogan to victory in the Michigan Republican governor’s primary, are the leading edge of that “someone different” mentality.

The November election could produce many more Snyders if these numbers hold.

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Armed Resistance

Sharron Angle

Sharron Angle

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is up with a new TV ad slamming former Nevada Assemblywoman Sharron Angle (R) for comments in which she suggested that voters dissatisfied with the direction of government should take to “second amendment remedies.”

The ad features Bill Ames, the president of the Peace Officers Research Association of Nevada, calling Angle’s comments “way over the line.”

“It’s crazy, but what she’s actually talking about is armed resistance,” Ames says. “Look, I’m a member of the NRA and a Republican, but that kind of talk is dangerous and way too extreme.”

Angle’s camp shrugged off the ad. “Reid is desperate to talk about anything except the economy because his policies as Majority Leader have caused over 14 percent unemployment in Nevada and voters hate him for it,” said Angle spokesperson Jarrod Agen.

The commercial is the latest effort by Reid to paint Angle outside of the Nevada mainstream on issues; he has previously attacked Angle’s past statement on Social Security.

Government Is The Problem

Team Angle’s strategy on the airwaves, meanwhile, has been to blame Reid for Nevada’s record high unemployment while charging that “government is the problem” and “we, the people, are the solution.”

Angle has undoubtedly given Reid plenty of fodder for ads, but the new spot comes after the Senate Majority Leader made a gaffe of his own when he told a crowd earlier this week: “I don’t know how anyone of Hispanic heritage could be a Republican, okay?”.

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Reid’s camp later sought to clarify those remarks, saying that Reid’s “contention was simply that he doesn’t understand how anyone, Hispanic or otherwise, would vote for Republican candidates.”

A Reuters-Ipsos poll released last week showed Reid leading Angle 48 percent to 44 percent among likely voters – a much narrower lead than Reid’s 52 percent to 36 percent advantage among registered voters.

Polling conducted since Angle’s June 8th primary win has consistently shown her trailing Reid.

The Tonya Harding Of Florida Politics

Free-spending former health care executive Rick Scott is up with two new TV ads bashing state Attorney General Bill McCollum, his opponent for Florida’s Republican gubernatorial nod.

Bill McCollum

Bill McCollum

The first ad charges that McCollum “promised to spend tax dollars wisely, but then he spent $280,000 taxpayer dollars on chartered aircraft, even for personal use.” The second claims that McCollum has been “caught in a lie again” for conflicting statements he’s made on Arizona’s immigration law.

Both spots, which will be running statewide, refer to the gubernatorial hopeful as “career politician Bill McCollum.”

Scott has been relentless in attacking McCollum on his long tenure in politics as well as his position on the immigration law while McCollum has countered by taking aim at Scott’s political Achilles’ heel – the $1.7 billion fraud case involving his former company, Columbia/HCA.

This week has marked some of the more colorful developments for Scott and McCollum along the campaign trail. Scott held a press conference yesterday in order to defend himself from accusations regarding his current company, the Solantic walk-in clinic chain, but instead was hit with a subpoena in a new lawsuit.

At the same event, Scott decried McCollum as “the Tonya Harding of Florida politics.”
week.

A Mason-Dixon poll released late last week showed Scott leading McCollum 37 percent to 31 percent, with 29 percent undecided. Early voting ahead of the Aug. 24 primary began Monday.

State CFO Alex Sink will be the Democratic nominee.

Bud Chiles, the son of former Gov. Lawton Chiles (D), is running as an independent.

Will Fight For Them

Richard Blumenthal

Richard Blumenthal

Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal wasted little time in starting the general election fight against former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon (R) by launching his first ad designed to re-introduce him to voters.

Blumenthal, who has very high approval numbers from his two decades as the state’s top cop, notes his battles against pharmaceutical companies, utilities and “big tobacco” in the ad. “The people of Connecticut know me, and one thing they know about me for sure is that I will fight for them,” Blumenthal says, as images flash of him visiting various constituents.

The ad plays to Blumenthal’s strengths and what has made him a popular figure in the state over the last two decades. While McMahon’s professional wrestling empire will be on trial in the coming weeks, Blumenthal is setting a tone that is above-the-fray, even as plenty of other Democrats have been going negative in their first ads.

It’s likely Republicans will work to quickly change that tone – perhaps bringing up Blumenthal’s exaggerations regarding his Vietnam service.

Blumenthal is also staffing up as the general election begins, adding Tyler Matsdorf, a communications operative for Montana Sen. Max Baucus (D), to his team.

A recent Quinnipiac University poll showed Blumenthal leading McMahon 50 percent to 40 percent, and she had been closing the margin in recent months thanks to her heavy spending in advance of Tuesday’s primary.

Political Handicappers

Washington State Democratic Sen. Patty Murray leads former gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi (R) 41 percent to 33 percent in Washington’s top-two primary next week, according to a new SurveyUSA poll.

Patty Murray

Patty Murray

But Rossi and a pair of GOP candidates are combining to take nearly half the vote, which could be bad for Murray in the second round of voting a.k.a. the general election.

Washington features an unusual voting system in which all candidates are thrown into one field in the Aug. 17 primary with the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, advancing to the general election.

The poll suggests that Rossi faces little danger of not finishing in the top two; former NFL player Clint Didier (R) takes 11 percent and Paul Akers (R) receives five percent.

(Didier has the backing of former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and he and Akers are running an unorthodox joint campaign to take down Rossi as the establishment candidate.)

Murray, first elected in 1992, has consistently overperformed expectations in her re-election races. But, Rossi is widely seen as her most serious opponent yet and leading political handicappers rate the race as a toss up, the Washington Post concludes.

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– Wall Street er 40% overpriset

 

Det amerikanske aksjemarkedet er cirka 40 prosent overvurdert i forhold til selskapenes reelle verdi. Det skriver Global Markets i et analysenotat.

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Når aksjemarkedet stiger på tross av opplysningene om at arbeidsledigheten fortsetter å øke i 27 av 50 stater (eks. Washington, Puerto Rico og Jomfruøyene) og når rekordhøyder i stater som California, Nevada og Michigan med henholdsvis 12,2, 13,2 og 15,2 prosent, samtidig som tilførselen av penger krymper med en årstakt på 16 prosent, er det kanskje ikke rart at mange lurer på om Wall Street er fullstendig koblet fra den virkelige verden.
         

 

Global Markets, som er en del av det uavhengige analysebårået Capital Economics, har fredag offentliggjort et analysenotat det de hevder at det amerikanske aksjene er priset 40 prosent høyere enn den reele verdien på selskapene de tilhører.

Notatet er lastet opp på databasen Scribd.

Du kan selv lese notatet ved å klikke på denne linken:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/19895543/Global-Update-Tobins-Q-Sep-09

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Følg linken og les analysenotatet fra Capital Markets.

 

40 prosent overpriset

– Ifølge Federal Reserves siste “Flow of Funds“-rapport som ble sendt ut torsdag var markedsverdien av næringslivets aksjer verdt 0,78 prosent av selskapenes netto verdi ved utgangen av andre kvartal. Vi har mistanke om at de siste ukenes oppgang i aksjemarkedet har presset dette forholdstallet, kalt Q, til rundt 0,9 prosent. Det geometriske gjennomsnittet for Q-verdien siden 1900 er 0,64. Aksjemarkedet er derfor om lag 40 prosent overpriset i forhold til den historiske trenden basert på denne tidsrammen, skriver seniorøkonom John Higgins hos Global Markets (www.capitaleconomics.com).

(Q-verdien ble oppfunnet av Nobelsprisvinner i økonomi, James Tobin, for 40 år siden. Tobin er for øvrig mest kjent for sitt omdiskuterte forslag om skatt på valutatransaksjoner).

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AKSJENES Q-VERDI ligger nå trolig rundt 0,9, nesten 40 prosent over gjennomsnittet for de siste 109 årene.

 

 

 

john.higgins

Seniorøkonom John Higgins, Global Markets.

 

Oppturen fortsetter (litt til)

 

– Selv om både Q-verdien og CAPE (syklust-justert P/E-ratio) antyder at aksjene er overvurdert, har vi mistanke om at aksjemarkedet kan fortsette videre opp frem til midten av 2010 etter hvert som de økonomiske dataene fortsetter å bedres. Den økonomiske bedringen bør støttes i denne perioden med en turnaround i lagersyklusen, finansiell stimulering og en liten økning i næringslivets investeringer. Resultatforventingene og risikoappetitten vil derfor trolig fortsette å være rimelig usenkelig og vi ser S&P’s 500 i 1150 poeng innen neste sommer. Men etter det vil trolig veksten smuldre vekk, akkompanjert av fortsatt gjeldsnedbygging blant husholdningene. Følgelig tviler vi på at aksemarkedet ved utgangen av neste år vi ligge høyere enn det gjør nå, avslutter Global Markets.

FED, vekst og volum

Sjeføkonom Albert Edwards advarte i går om den sårbare økonomien som oppstår når de økonomiske stimuleringstiltakene trappes ned.

Oppgangen på over 50 prosent i det amerikanske aksjemarkedet er en direkt følge av Federal Reserve sin såkalte “kvantitative lettelse” (quantitative easing).

18.mars i år startet Bernanke & Co sine oppkjøp i verdipapirmarkedet, først og fremst av amerikanske statsobligasjoner.

Her er effekten:

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SAMMENHENGEN mellom volum og kursoppgang, S&P’s 500 ett år.

 

I tillegg til det avsatte beløpet på 300 millarder dollar, har FED økt sittbalanse sheet 

Det vil si; sentralbanken har økt sine lån til finansnæringen.

Til hvem, hva og hvor mye vil ikke FED opplyse.

Det pussige er at likviditeten i aksjemarkedet også har økt med nøyaktig like mye i akkurat samme periond.

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SAMMENHENG mellom FEDs utlån og likviditetsveksten i aksjemarkedet. 

Det går itj likar, no nei

 

Festgleden har avtatt betraktelig på Wall Street de siste to dagene.

 

S&P’s 500 vekslet mellom pluss og minus tre ganger fredag, men greide å avslutte på den grønne siden og ender uken opp 1,7 prosent.

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UKESLUTT: S&P’s 500 ender på plussiden. Volumet er lavt. RSI har vært mer over 50 enn under, men gir intet entydig signal. Forholdet Bull/Bear-force er også jevnt. En synlig forsterkning av bjørnekreftene mot slutten av dagen. (Noen skrudde sansynligvis av robotene en halv time tidligere og tok helgen).

 

 

 

 
 
 

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