Tag Archives: Joe Biden

The Week Ahead: Hold On To Your Hats!

When it comes to the global economy, it seems like the fun is just getting started: Regulators are now  calling for extra capital to be imposed on the largest banks, Bank for International Settlements urge economic growth to slow down in order to curb inflation, central bankers are screaming for rate hike and Greek deputy prime minister warns that rebels may block new economic reforms.

“You can’t ask for more taxes in an already overtaxed country, in a market that has been sucked dry, with economic activity at zero and a huge recession.”

Antonis Samaras

Yup! Just when you thought the Chinese was going to save the day, it turns out that it’s not that easy after all. No matter what the bureaucrats of Brussels asks for; the people of Greece may very well give them the middle finger. But that’s not all. The central bankers – who have declared the worst is over  every other week for two years – has suddenly discovered that it’s probably not.

Right now rather disturbing news reports are pouring in.

Here’s some of the headlines of the financial press at the moment:

FINANCIAL TIMES

REUTERS

AP

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

  • French Banks Seek Greek Debt Rollover. French banks have proposed a plan to reinvest half the proceeds from maturing Greek governments bonds ahead of a meeting of key players, in efforts to encourage private investors to contribute to a new bailout for Greece.
  • Nokia, Siemens fail to secure investors. Nokia Corp and Siemens AG failed to secure a deal for investors for a controlling stake in their unprofitable joint venture.

DER SPIEGEL

THIS WEEKS NUMBERS

Well, I have a feeling we might get a surprise or two, also, during the week.

When it comes to the economic data, European investors will look closely at the PMI surveys, that will indicate whether global soft-patch continued into June.

Th week also sees a raft of data on inflation, the US housing market and consumer trends, plus business conditions in Japan.

Monday
A week in which market attention will remain firmly set on Greece starts with the publication of Italian wages data before attention shifts across the Atlantic to the US, where personal income and outlays numbers will be used to gauge the strength of the consumer sector.

 

 

 

 

Tuesday
Greece’s Parliament is scheduled to vote on its new package of austerity measures on Tuesday. The reforms are a requirement for the next tranche of the IMF/EU loans to be released in time for the funding of bonds in mid-July.
The day also features a number of key data releases, starting with Japanese retail sales numbers for May, Gfk consumer confidence in Germany, plus business confidence and producer price numbers for Italy.
In the UK, final gross domestic product (GDP) numbers for Q1 are released, as well as current account data. According to official estimates, the UK economy expanded at only a modest rate of 0.5% in the first quarter of 2011.
After cooling in May, German consumer price inflation is expected to quicken from an annual rate of 2.4% to 2.6%.
Weekly US Redbook store chain sales are published before the release of the S&P Case-Shiller home price index takes centre stage. The index of home prices in the nation’s largest cities fell below its April 2009 low towards the end of Q1, raising worries about a double-dip in house prices.

The US Conference Board publishes its June barometer of consumer sentiment. Confidence waned in May amid rising fuel and oil prices and concerns about the employment situation. This apprehension among consumers likely continued in June.

Wednesday
Preliminary industrial production numbers for Japan will be eagerly anticipated after trade data showed exports falling at a faster-than-expected rate.
French GDP data (final) for Q1 are released in advance of UK consumer credit, mortgage lending/applications and money supply numbers.
European Commission economic sentiment figures for June follow.
Weekly US mortgage applications data are released, as well as pending homes sales numbers, which plunged in April. However, there is evidence to suggest that temporary factors, such as bad weather, were behind the severity of the decline.

Thursday
The Gfk consumer confidence survey for the UK is published ahead of the Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI™ for June. The PMI™ pointed to renewed output growth in May, as easing supply chain pressures enabled firms to restart production lines.
Euro zone inflation comes under the spotlight with producer price data for France and the preliminary estimate of consumer price inflation for the single currency area as a whole. After dipping unexpectedly in May, a further easing in the rate of inflation will make a rate hike later in the year less likely. German unemployment numbers are also published for June.
The usual US weekly jobless claims date are accompanied by the Chicago PMI, which will be watched closely due to its good track record with the ISM manufacturing index, published Friday.

Markit’s release of Manufacturing PMIs for Asia follow, notably final data for China, where the flash HSBC PMI™ survey pointed to a stagnation of output and easing price pressures across the sector. HSBC PMI™ releases for South Korea and Taiwan will be monitored for trends in global trade flows.
The Markit Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI™ data follow last week’s flash estimate, which showed the region’s economic growth surge losing momentum at a worrying rate.
The publication of the Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI™ follows shortly after. May data signalled that manufacturing moved from rapid expansion to near-stagnation.
Italy publishes final GDP numbers for Q1 and jobs numbers before the unemployment rate for the euro zone is released.
The week ends in the US, where the University of Michigan consumer confidence index will shed light on consumer spending patterns. Construction spending numbers follow.

However, the ISM Manufacturing PMI will be the key release in the US; the headline index posted its lowest reading for 12-months in May, reflecting a marked slowdown in output and new order growth.

Friday
Friday starts with the release of unemployment, consumer price inflation and household spending numbers for Japan, plus the Bank of Japan’s quarterly survey of business conditions.

Now, hold on to your hats, and trade with attitude!

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USA Has Reached Its Debt Limit

The United States reached its predefined national debt limit Monday morning. That means that the US government no longer is able to meet its obligations by borrowing more money. According to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner the nation will default if the Congress doesn’t lift the debt ceiling by August 2.

“Failing to do something about the debt would be far worse in the long-run than failing to raise the debt limit.”

According to TPMDS, the US Congress has ordered that interest must be paid on existing debt, since incoming revenues aren’t sufficient to pay for the services , and the Treasury department is planning a series of ever-more extraordinary measures to pay of its bills.

According to US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, the US may get away with this – but only until August 2.

If Congress doesn’t lift the debt ceiling by then, the country will default, triggering a number of severe economic consequences.

Geithner has already stopped issuing securities to states that help them keep their books in balance and maintain infrastructure, TPMDC writes on their website.

Pointing out that today, the government will defer payments to and investments in federal pension funds – pensions Republicans want federal workers to pay more money into than they currently do.

But despite the serious situation, you won’t get the impression that time is of the essence from congressional Republicans.

They are refusing to raise the debt limit without substantial cuts to government spending and entitlement programs. GOP leaders on Capitol Hill continue to vacillate between claiming that the consequences of default would be smaller than the consequences of not cutting spending.

“Failing to do something about the debt would be far worse in the long-run than failing to raise the debt limit,” says US Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell on the Senate floor Thursday.

Admitting that they’re using the threat of a default to make good on long-standing conservative commitments.

“What better time to do something about the debt than in connection with raising the debt ceiling?” McConnell says.

Still, Republicans have thus far set the terms of the debate, at least in the public realm. They insist they will not accept increasing revenues as part of any deal.

They want to implement budget process reforms that will make it easier to cut spending in the future, and say they’ll only raise the debt limit by as much or less than the trillions in spending cuts they’re able to enact as part of a deal.

Underneath that, they’ve expressed willingness to negotiate the precise cuts to discretionary, defense, and entitlement spending, TPMDC highlights.

However, their opening bid – the House GOP budget – includes enormous cuts to Medicare and Medicaid.

House Speaker John Boehner said Sunday that he sees no substantial movement from the Obama administration in his direction, increasing the sense that a deal is still far off.

However, the precise details of negotiations between House and Senate leaders and the White House, led by Vice President Joe Biden, remain tightly held.

“There’s likely a gap between the perceptions presented in public statements and the reality behind the scenes. And that gap will likely grow as we approach August, and the consequences of dithering and the pressure to avoid calamity mount,” The Taking Points Memo concludes.

And perhaps SAXO Bank will hit bullseye with their number one Outrageous Predictions for 2011:

“As we move into the second half of 2011, politicians and pundits increasingly succeed in putting the Fed in the hot seat for having been the critical enabler of the US housing debacle and resulting bank bailout and public debt catastrophe. Meanwhile, the too-big-to-fail banks are back in deep trouble again as their troubled mortgage portfolios once again threaten their solvency. The Fed‟s Bernanke rallies the FOMC to indicate a strong new expansion of monetary policy to once again bail out the troubled banks and/or local governments. Emboldened by the political and popular winds blowing, however, a Ron Paul led challenge of the Fed‟s authority sees the Congress blocking the Fed‟s authority to expand its balance sheet, and sets up an eventual challenge of the Fed’s dual employment/inflation mandate.”


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Joe Biden: "USA er i en depresjon"

Joe Biden, U.S. Senator from Delaware.
Image via Wikipedia

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

VISEPRESIDENTEN I USA  JOE BIDEN SIER NASJONEN ER INNE I EN DEPRESJON.

“My grandpop used to say: When the guy in Minooka’s out of work, it’s an economic slowdown. When your brother- in-law’s out of work, it’s a recession. When you’re out of work, it’s a depression.”

Det sier USAs visepresident Joe Biden på denne videoen som ble offentliggjort tirsdag av den konservative radioverten Sean Hannity på Fox News.

Opptaket er fra en debatt i Kongressen, men det er uklart når opptaket ble gjort.

På spørsmål om hvordan han vurderer dagens situasjon, svarte visepresidenten: 

“Well, it’s a depression. It’s a depression for millions of Americans, through no fault of their own.”

Bare storkjeftet?

Nå er Joe Biden kjent for å bruke store ord, men samtidig legger han ikke fingrene imellom når det gjelder å beskrive tingene som de er.

Hvorvidt USA nå er i en økonomisk depresjon eller ikke kan sikkert økonomene føre endeløse diskusjoner om.

Vi konstanterer at følgede personer mener, mer eller mindre, det samme som visepresident Joe Biden:

 

* Administrerende direktør Nicu Harajci hos N1 Asset Management.

* Nobelprisvinner i økonomi Paul Krugman.

* Tidligere sjeføkonom i Merrill Lynch, David Rosenberg.

* Tidligere sjef for den amerikanske International Trade Commision, professor Peter Morici.

* Nobelprisvinner i økonomi, professor Joseph Stigliz.

* Tidligere Secretary of Labor, professor Robert Reich.

* Statsminister i Storbritannia, Gordon Brown. (Har senere sagt at uttalelsene var “a slip of the tounge”)

* Investeringsrådgiver Ray Dalio.

* Investeringsrådgiver Dough Casey.

 

Les også: IMF: – Depresjonen er her.

 

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