Tag Archives: BP

So, You Think You Can Blog? (Econotwist's Greatest Hits 2010)

Every serious blog is presenting their top lists for 2010 these days, so I better get my lists out there too. Frankly, I’m quite surprised by the response I’ve got. After all this was my first year as a full-time blogger. By summer last year, the econotwist’s blogs – mainly The Swapper and The Econotwist’s – reached 20.000 unique visitors per month. Some articles was also republished by other blogs, or featured on the publishing sites like Scribd. I estimate the top articles of Econotwist’s in 2010 was read by at least 200.000 people. And as usual I managed, completely unintended, to make some people a little bit angry.

“That article is about as credible as me writing about nuclear technology. Off-balance sheet transactions? SPEs? Interest Rate and Currency Swaps? Has that idiot even looked at an Annual report for BP?”

Reader’s response


The quote above was in response to the July 2 post – “So, You Thought BP Was An OIL Company?” I haven’t got that much pepper since I described DnB NOR‘s subsidiary in the Baltic region as at “financial lab rat”. Anyway, I see all feedback, good or bad, as extremely valuable. I have not been able to reply to all comments or requests. For that I apologize, and promise I’ll spend more time on your responses in 2011. As for themes I will be focusing on the technological side of the financial markets in addition to my other specialties – the relations between economy and ecology.

And I will have a couple of new prominent contributors joining in, as well as some other surprises…

But right now I want to give my sincere thanks to all of you who’s been cheering me on this year, making my first year as a blogger a definitive success.

To quote one of my favorite artists, (Keith Richards): GOLD RINGS TO YOU ALL !

And here is a summary of the most popular posts and publications by The Econotwist’s Blogs in 2010.

 

TOP POSTS

  1. So, You Thought BP Was An OIL Company?
  2. Mother Earth On Crack
  3. Volcano Ash Can Send The Earth Into “Deep Freeze”
  4. The Worlds Most Contagious Countries – Here’s The List
  5. Cyber Criminals Attack Critical Water, Oil and Gas Systems
  6. More Mysterious “Monster Fish” Comes To Surface
  7. The Ultimate Trading Weapon
  8. Norwegian Day Traders Convicted Of Market Manipulation
  9. Goldman Sachs: “Damn American Bastards!”
  10. Flight to Mystery
  11. The Sun Is Speaking!
  12. Here’s The REAL Norwegian PIIGS Exposure

 

TOP PUBLICATIONS

  1. Goldman Sachs: Global Economics Weekly. June 2010.
  2. Non Performing Loans, Europe June 2010. PriceWaterhouseCoopers
  3. Letter From Geithner
  4. SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating than Lehman!
  5. Speech by Mr Ben S Bernanke, Chairman of the Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve System, at Princeton. 09242010.
  6. Goldman Sachs: “On The Eve of The Bank StressTests”
  7. Tudor Investments Letter October 2010
  8. Saxo Bank. Quarterly Outlook. Q3 2010.
  9. BP Annual Report and Accounts 2009
  10. Bank of International Settlement. Quarterly Report. June 2010
  11. Oslo District Court. Final Verdict In The Case of Market Manipulation by Day Traders. 10122010.
  12. Fitch. Special Report. “CDS Spreads and Default Risk – Interpreting the Signals”- October 2010.

 

Econotwisted T-Shirt (Limited Edition)

OTHER SMASHING HITS AND PERSONAL FAVORITES

 

BEST PHOTO COMMENTS

The Greatest Conspiracy

 

The Dark Side of The White House

 

Trade Hard - Mega Hard

 

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MOST VIEWED iROCK VIDEOS


 

#1. “Nobody Lnpws The Bubbles I’ve Seen” (By Versusplus.com)

 

#2. “It’s Beginning To Look A Lot More RiskLess” (By Versusplus.com)

 

 

No matter what happens in 2011 – don’t forget to have some fun!

All The Best

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Filed under International Econnomic Politics, National Economic Politics, Philosophy, Technology

Another BP CDS Blowout Today?

Reports stemming from the presidential commission investigating the Gulf of Mexico oil spill indicate that Halliburton and BP were aware of flaws in the cement used to seal the well’s bottom. Halliburton’s CDS spreads started to move  Thursday – what will happen on Friday?

“The distribution of the burden, unlike hardened cement, is still fluid.”

Otis Casey



Halliburton and BP may have been aware of flaws in the cement used to seal the well’s bottom, according to an official report.  CDS on Halliburton started out moderately wider on the headlines, but is currently about 38 bps wider than yesterday’s close. Anadarko and Transocean are essentially unchanged. But this can change quickly.

The market’s reaction on BP CDS will come in Friday’s London session

“Whether the report constitutes a ‘smoking gun’ or not remains to be seen, but it has that potential. Litigation risk is high even if the total amount is uncertain. The distribution of the burden, unlike hardened cement, is still fluid,” vice president Otis Casey at Markit writes in a comment.

(www.markit.com)

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Back in May, it was  the Transocean CDS that got the biggest kick.

(www.cma.com)

 

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Filed under National Economic Politics, Technology

These Companies Stands To Benefit The Most From BP's Misfortune

Markit Research have made an analysis of which companies they belive will provide the most significant payouts in the absence of BP’s dividend. BP’s dividend suspension in June meant that investors would forego an estimated £7.8 billion in dividends this year. However, there are significant income opportunities from other stocks, according to the report. Markit expects that dividends from just five companies in the FTSE 100 will constitute over 60% of all those paid between now and BP’s next anticipated dividend in February 2011.

“The fact that recent market rumours suggesting BP might bring forward its planned resumption of dividend payments have received so much media attention is emblematic of its importance to investors and highlights the perceived scarcity of major dividend paying stock alternatives.”

Markit Dividend Research


“Markit is forecasting a yield of over 4% on the FTSE 100 over the forthcoming year. So despite the latest CPI annual inflation figures for August remaining stubbornly high at 3.1% and interest rates not looking likely to increase any time soon, real returns from income stocks appear achievable,” the two analysts Thomas Matheson and Arjun Venu writes in the latest edition of Markit Dividend Research.

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BP’s dividend suspension in June meant that investors would forego an estimated £7.8 billion in dividends this year. In the absence of this payout, however, there are significant income opportunities from other stocks, according to the report.

“In fact, Markit is forecasting a yield of over 4% on the FTSE 100 over the forthcoming year. So despite the latest CPI annual inflation figures for August remaining stubbornly high at 3.1% and interest rates not looking likely to increase any time soon, real returns from income stocks appear achievable,” Matheson and Venu says:

“Markit expects that dividends from just five companies in the FTSE 100 will constitute over 60% of all those paid between now and BP’s next anticipated dividend in February 2011. This report briefly reviews Markit’s forecasts for each of these companies. For three of these stocks we are expecting dividends to continue to grow, while for the remaining two we expect dividends to remain flat.”

And here they are; the five companies whose shareholders will benefit the most from BP’s misfortune:

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* Royal Dutch Shell
“The biggest contribution is expected from Royal Dutch Shell, whose payouts will represent just over a quarter of all dividends paid by FTSE 100 companies between now and February. So far in 2010 Shell has managed to maintain its dividend at the 2009 level of $0.42 per quarter and Markit fully expects this to continue for the rest of the year. In addition to cutting costs, Shell has seen positive trends in oil and gas volumes help to improve earnings and cash flow.

* AstraZeneca Plc
“Markit forecasts AstraZeneca’s 2nd interim payment to grow 6.4% to $1.82, which will constitute 12.7% of all dividends on the index. The healthcare behemoth reported strong first half results and raised its full year earnings forecast for the third consecutive time this year. The company also received backing from the FDA advisory panel for potential “blockbuster” drug Brilinta which has boosted the potential future pipeline and eased worries over numerous upcoming patent expires.”

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* Vodafone Plc

“Vodafone has committed to increasing its dividend by 7% per annum over the next two years and its FY11 interim dividend is expected to amount to a payout of almost £1.7 billion. Markit is forecasting an interim dividend of 2.85 pence per share, which will make up 11.2% of all FTSE 100 dividends between now and February.”

* HSBC Plc
“Despite being cut 39% last year, HSBC’s dividend remains substantial. HSBC’s capital position comfortably exceeds the requirements of Basel III and the company has given guidance that it intends to pay a Q3 dividend of $0.08 in line with its existing policy, amounting to 6.8% of dividends on the index.”

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* GlaxoSmithKline Plc
“The largest healthcare company in the UK, GlaxoSmithKline has delivered sustained dividend growth throughout the last decade. Markit is forecasting for this to continue with a Q3 dividend of 16.0 pence, up 6.7% from last year. This payment would make up 6.3% of all FTSE 100 dividends. The first half of the year saw sales grow 7% to £14.4 billion and net operating cash flows jump 21% in sterling terms to £4.2 billion, supporting this growth.”

Here’s a short-version of the report.

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Filed under International Econnomic Politics, National Economic Politics