Tag Archives: Bank of Ireland

Belgium Joins The PIIGS: And Then They Were Six

Those hoping for a euphoric reaction to the weekend bailout of Ireland must have been disappointed today. Even Italy, which many had started to regard as no longer a PIIG, matched its record wide. Contagion fears have certainly not been assuaged; if anything, they have become more heightened.

“And the rate at which Belgium is widening means that we may have to find a new derogatory acronym.”

Gavan Nolan

The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe index surged to another record wide and the two Iberian sovereigns broke the record levels that they hit last week.

Ireland’s funding needs for the next two years seem to have been settled by the bailout, albeit at a less than generous average rate of 5.8%.

And the fact that bank senior bondholders won’t be sharing the burden before 2013 has been welcomed by the markets, if not by the Irish people.

But the political risk remains ahead of the December 7 budget, Gavan Nolan at Markit Credit Research points out.

“The consensus seems to be that the coalition government will manage to get it through, but there is no guarantee that the incoming government early next year will not want to renegotiate the terms of the bailout.”

The rescue of Ireland by the EU/IMF was more or less priced into Irish spreads, so the widening was concentrated in the other peripherals (bar Greece).

“Speculation that Portugal is next in line has intensified and has now spilled over into sovereigns – such as Belgium – that were perceived as relatively safe a few months ago,” Nolan Writes.

Core euro zone countries have also widened significantly.

Banks lost the gains they made this morning, the sovereign debt concerns outweighing the relief from the lack of “burden sharing” for Irish bank senior bondholders.

AIB and Bank of Ireland senior CDS, unsurprisingly, outperformed the rest of the sector, though liquidity remains poor on these names.

(Markit Liquidity Scores of 3 and 4 respectively).


  • Markit iTraxx Europe 115bp (+5), Markit iTraxx Crossover 515.5bp (+21.5)
  • Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe 198bp (+10.5)
  • Markit iTraxx Senior Financials 166bp (+1.5)
  • Sovereigns – Greece 960bp (-4), Spain 353p (+28), Portugal 545bp (+43), Italy 249bp (+34), Ireland 615bp (+15), Belgium 188bp (+29)

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Filed under International Econnomic Politics

UPDATE: Euro Strengthens, Stocks Decline On Irish Bailout

The European common currency continue to strengthen vs the Dollar while European stocks turns negative after a short rally as a reaction to Sunday’s news of another EU bailout. Here are the comments and updates from some of the leading Nordic and European analysts.

“It’s probably a question of when the next problem will occur, rather than whether there will be one.”

Jim Reid

Prime minister Brian Cowen & Finance minister Brian Lenihan

European stock markets responded positively on Monday to news that Ireland has applied for a rescue package in an effort to safeguard financial stability, but earlier gains were pared back as the market awaited more details of the plan. The euro seems to be following the same pattern.

The Stoxx Europe 600 index is now down by 0.5%, after hitting an intraday high of 271.68 Monday morning. The index posted a loss of 0.3% last week.

Stocks across Europe were already turning negative when Moody’s Investors Service announced a review of Ireland’s Aa2 rating would likely result in a “multi-notch downgrade.”

Moody’s says in a statement that a package of financial aid for Ireland will help standalone credit quality of banks but that it would underline bank-contingent liabilities for the government and weigh on its sovereign debt burden.

Moody’s Investor Service.

Late Sunday, the Irish government formally applied for aid from the European Union, which welcome the request.

The International Monetary Fund says it stands ready to join the support program, including through a multi-year loan.

Here’s a copy of the statement by the Government of Ireland.

Here’s a copy of the statement by the EU officials.

No specific number has been given, but Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan says, according to media reports, that it would be less than 100 billion euros ($136.7 billion).

The troubled state of the Irish banking sector had made a bailout deal seem all but inevitable in recent days.

Video report by Reuters:

Vodpod videos no longer available.


Irish Financial Stocks Drop

However, Irish financial stocks came under heavy selling pressure after Prime Minister Brian Cowen on Sunday said they would need to become smaller as part of the bailout.

He also said they may need to raise more capital.

“The good news for banks is that they have a bit more to go on, but for them, because of the support structure in terms of that, it looks as if there’s a fair chance they will further dilute shareholders,” Bernard McAlinden, strategist with NCB Stockbrokers, says according to MarketWatch.com.

Shares of Bank of Ireland has dropped 16,8% this morning, while Allied Irish Banks PLC is down -1.15%.

Irish Life & Permanent Group Holdings PLC is tumbling down more than 20%.

“As long as no one else needs a bailout, the market gets relief from here,” McAlinden says.

“A restructuring of the banks seems obvious as well as tighten fiscal policy. New stress tests of the banks are likely to be included as part of the plan as the tests undertaken this summer did not prove sufficient. However, the Irish authorities claim the low corporate tax for foreign companies is not part of the deal. In addition the four-year fiscal is likely to be even tighter than planned,” senior economist Knut Magnussen at DnB NOR Markets points out.

Here’s a copy of today’s Morning Report from DnB NOR Markets.

See also: FX Weekly Update, DnB NOR Markets, 11222010.

Who’s Next?

The market turbulence triggered by worries over Ireland had started to spill over in recent days to other high-deficit countries like Portugal and Spain.

Jim Reid, strategist at Deutsche Bank, says it’s probably, though, “a question of when the next problem will occur, rather than whether there will be one.”

“A band-aid solution will take the immediate pressure off from the peripheral risk complex but will not permanently resolve the more fundamental issues of the highly leveraged western financial system,” Reid writes in a note to clients.

“So with Ireland having now joined Greece in the ‘kick the can down the road’ drill, which bails out bondholders at the expense of the Irish tax-payers, markets are likely to turn the attention to the next of the PIIGS. Portugal needs to roll over more than EUR 10 billion of sovereign debt in the first half of 2011 and thus looks more or less like a sitting duck,” market strategist Christian Tegllund at Saxo Bank writes in his Wake-up Call Monday morning.

Here’s a copy of the latest macro analysis from Saxo Bank.

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Filed under International Econnomic Politics, National Economic Politics

European Weekly Credit Wrap; Counting on QE 2

Two events have dominated the sovereign CDS world this week, one important and the other markedly less so. The first was the Irish government’s clarification of its bank bailout plans. The uncertainty surrounding the issue has made a major contribution to market volatility in recent weeks, and Ireland’s spreads went beyond 500bp to another record wide on Tuesday. Finally, on Thursday morning the government published details of its plans.

“The country’s budget deficit for 2010 will now be astonishing 32% of GDP, over 10 times the amount set out in European Union guidelines.”

Gavan Nolan

The total cost of the Anglo Irish Bank bailout has been placed at EUR29.3 billion, up from the previous estimate of EUR25 billion but in line with newspaper reports during the week. This, however, was based on a baseline scenario. Under a “severe hypothetical stress scenario” a further EUR5 billion of capital will be needed, bringing the total cost to EUR34,3 billion, according to Friday’s market wrap by Markit.

“The stress scenario is based on a 65% fall in commercial property values from their peak, which would result in losses of 43% to 70% on the remainder of the non-NAMA portfolio,” vice president Gavan Nolan at Markit Credit Research points out.

Allied Irish Bank – Ireland’s second-biggest bank and of greater systemic importance than Anglo Irish – will also require additional capital.

The government will be putting another EUR3 billion into the bank as a result of higher haircuts on the last tranche of loans transferred to NAMA.

This will make it the majority shareholder.

“Unsurprisingly, the bailout will have a drastic effect on the sovereign’s fiscal position, even if subordinated bondholders share some of the burden. The country’s budget deficit for 2010 will now be astonishing 32% of GDP, over 10 times the amount set out in European Union guidelines. The government responded by announcing that it would step up its already severe austerity measures. It seems unlikely that economic growth – already anemic – will not be hindered by this policy. Ireland’s spreads have rallied on short-covering but are still more than double early August levels,” Nolan writes.

On the thorny issue of Anglo Irish’s bondholders, the government fulfilled expectations that senior debt will be protected and subordinated bondholders will have to share the burden of the bailout.

The finance ministry statement specifically mentioned Anglo Irish and Irish Nationwide Building Society (also under government control) as being subject to debt reorganization.

“This appears to rule out Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish Bank. However, given the high-level of government ownership in the latter some investors may fear that the government could change its mind if the losses start to mount.”

Nolan also highlights the point of uncertainty is what form the “burden-sharing” will take. saying; “A punitive tender is one of the possibilities, as is a debt/equity exchange. The case of Bradford and Bingley – where sub bondholders were effectively pushed down the capital structure through non-payment of coupons – caused a credit event last year. Market participants will be keenly anticipating clarification from the Irish government. Unsurprisingly, Anglo Irish senior CDS outperformed sub CDS.”

“Interestingly, the same pattern was seen in AIB,” he notes.

A larger peripheral euro-zone country was also in focus on Thursday.

Spain lost its last remaining AAA rating after Moody’s downgraded it to Aa1. The agency cited the country’s poor growth prospects and potential difficulties in reducing its budget deficit.

The announcement came as little surprise to the markets and spreads were largely unchanged. Spain already trades with an implied rating of BB, according to Markit data, and its spreads are significantly wider than the average AA sovereign.

Overall, the week was a positive one for credit, with the Markit iTraxx Europe at its tightest level for two weeks.

The economic picture has been mixed. Relatively strong data from China – both the Markit/HSBC Manufacturing PMI and government-sponsored PMI were above expectations – ran alongside relatively weak PMIs from Europe.

Today’s ISM Manufacturing survey was in line with estimates but the prices component posted a big jump. This worried investors hoping for the next round of QE to commence next month.

A speech from Fed governor William Dudley today indicated that at least one member of the FOMC is in favor of further expanding the Fed’s balance sheet.

Adam Posen, the newest member of the Bank of England‘s rate setting committee, also made clear that he is in favor of more QE.

“Whether their colleagues join them will depend on the data,” Nolan states.

“Next week’s ISM and Markit PMI surveys, as well as non-farm payrolls, will therefore be important in determining spread direction.”

Unique Market Activity

The ‘Unique Market Activity’ section lists stocks which were not active on Markit BOAT on the previous trading day.

Name Sector Volume Turnover €
GEM DIAMONDS Basic Materials 1,296,654 2,933,311
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. Financials 42,750 1,208,051
TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA Utilities 720,407 1,103,075
ALLIANCE OIL Oil & Gas 94,100 906,218
ALMIRALL Health Care 74,196 607,466
PGNIG Oil & Gas 524,733 478,858
POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA Utilities 77,479 455,958
FOLLI – FOLLIE Consumer Goods 30,835 446,427
GEMINA RNC Industrials 844,282 430,584
BRITISH ASSETS TRUST Financials 288,565 417,992

Top 10 ETF

Name Volume Turnover €
LYXOR ETF MSCI EUROPE 181,220 16,352,202
ISHARES DJ ST 600 TELECOM DE 513,000 13,902,300
ISHARES DJ STOXX 600 DE 345,000 9,153,747
DB X-TRACKERS – DJ STOXX 600 163,565 7,077,458

Top 10 Trades

Name Sector Volume Turnover €
TELEFONICA Telecoms 7,631,820 139,013,602
HSBC Financials 8,805,600 66,059,961
ENI Oil & Gas 3,880,000 61,420,400
BBVA Financials 6,170,000 61,113,848
BARCLAYS Financials 15,000,000 52,977,777
DAIMLER Consumer Goods 800,000 37,120,001
VODAFONE Telecoms 17,077,700 31,194,756
TOYOTA Consumer Goods 1,057,500 28,295,863
L’OREAL Consumer Goods 300,000 24,570,000
IMPALA PLATINUM HOLDINGS Basic Materials 1,231,255 22,777,933

Major Movers

Name Sector Volume Volume (T-1) % Change
BBVA Financials 18,385,360 3,598,166 411%
INFINEON TECHNOLOGY Technology 13,856,272 3,368,190 311%
TESCO Consumer Services 14,443,162 4,373,842 230%
INTESA SANPAOLO Financials 24,165,079 8,124,103 197%
UNICREDIT Financials 28,673,149 10,979,232 161%
NOKIA Technology 14,344,670 6,632,092 116%
BARCLAYS Financials 27,301,842 15,735,449 74%
VODAFONE Telecoms 49,464,931 32,098,454 54%
HSBC Financials 39,529,911 27,070,038 46%
LLOYDS Financials 49,194,173 35,203,569 40%

Markit BOAT is a trade reporting platform which consolidates pan-European cash equity trade data from MTFs, Dark Pools and OTC transactions. The trading activity in this report took place on 27th September 2010 and was published by Markit BOAT on the same day.

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Ireland To Cancel All Bond Sale In 2010

Irish Finance Minister: Concerted Attack On The Euro Zone

Confusion Reigns

Anglo Irish Downgraded – No Surprise

EUR Knocked Off Its Pedestal

Irish Sovereign CDS Spread Exceeds 500 Basis Points

Ireland And Portugal Close To Collapse

Irish CDS Spreds Back To Record High After Bond Sale



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