Tag Archives: Bahrain

Spinning a Wildfire

At least EU’s commissioner for energy got a bit of a boost Wednesday after saying that he feared a catastrophic event in Japen within hours. The financial markets went – of course – straight into free fall, and Mr. Günther Oettinger and his spin doctors probably made an unofficial speed record in official dèmentis with a contradiction statement within minutes after the first one. But spinning a wildfire is not an easy task.

“The lack of signs of improvement or even stabilisation sent stocks down sharply again and spreads were wider on the day during the afternoon.”

Gavan Nolan

It was perhaps inevitable that there would be a short covering rally at some point this week. Credit markets in Japan had widened dramatically for three days in succession; it would have been no surprise to see a pull back at some stage. And so it proved Wednesday morning when spreads opened tighter.

Japan’s sovereign CDS spreads were 11bp tighter at 105 basis points, reversing much of the widening of Tuesday.

The Nikkei was up over 5%, while the Markit iTraxx Japan index closed at 135 bp’s, 17 bp’s tighter than yesterday.

“Bid/ask spreads of 10bp were an improvement on the 15bp seen yesterday, though they were still considerably higher than the usual 1bp. Liquidity remains impaired,” credit analyst Gavan Nolan at Markit Credit Research points out in his daily summary.

A relatively bullish FOMC statement late yesterday added to the positive sentiment. he adds.

“The economy is on a “firmer footing” and the recent inflationary pressures will be ”transitory”, according to the Fed,” he writes.

But the rally soon lost momentum.

The impact of the nuclear accident in Fukushima is still uncertain, and there are now concerns over all six of the reactors at the plant.

A plan to use helicopters to cool the reactors had to be cancelled due to the high radiation levels.

“The lack of signs of improvement or even stabilisation sent stocks down sharply again and spreads were wider on the day during the afternoon,” Gavan Nolan explain.

And the incendiary comments from EU energy commissioner. Günther Oettinger, that the situation was “out of control” didn’t help- at all!

Nor did the press release a few minutes later, trying to explain that the EU commissioner only had expressed his feelings of fear, and not stating any kind of facts.

Well, looking at the chart of Tokyo Electric’s 5-years CDS it seems clear that Mr.  Oettinger’s  feelings is highly correlate with the reality of the situation.

Japan wasn’t the only factor feeding risk aversion. Bahrain has been overshadowed by events in Japan but the deteriorating public order situation there has potential ramifications for global markets. Saudi troops moved in on Monday – at the request of the Bahraini government – and the authorities declared martial law yesterday. Troops used force today to drive protesters out of Pearl Square in Manama, the heart of the anti-government movement.

“Oil crept up from $107 to $111 a barrel today, a reminder that events in the Middle East can affect global growth,” Nolan notes.

European sovereigns continued to hold up relatively well, though there was one notable laggard, according to Markit.

Portugal was downgraded to A3 from A1 and left on negative outlook by Moody’s, the agency citing the “subdued growth prospects” of the Iberian sovereign.

This didn’t come as a shock to market participants, and the downgrade only brought Moody’s into line with S&P.

The country’s auction of 12-month T-bills, however, had a far greater effect on sentiment.

The EUR1 billion debt sale was met with relatively tepid demand, the bid-to-cover ratio of 2.2 significantly less that the 3.1 achieved at the last auction held only two weeks ago.

The yield was also considerably higher at 4.331% compared to 4.057%.

“The positive effects of the EU summit are still lingering but it hasn’t quashed talk of a bailout. Investors are all too aware that the sovereign has sizeable refinancing needs over the next two months,” Nolan concludes.

  • * Markit iTraxx Europe 105bp (+1), Markit iTraxx Crossover 410bp (+4)
    * Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe 175bp (-5)
    * Markit iTraxx Senior Financials 158bp (-2), Markit iTraxx Subordinated Financials 278bp (-1.5)
    * Sovereigns – Greece 985bp (-5), Spain 227bp (-12), Portugal 513bp (+7), Italy 160bp (-4), Ireland 588bp (-20), Belgium 150bp (-4)
    * Saudi Arabia 133bp (0), Bahrain 351bp (-6)
    * Japan 115bp (-1)
    * Markit iTraxx Japan 148bp (-5)
    * Tokyo Electric Power Co – 345bp (-21)
    * Reinsurers – Swiss Re 125bp (-1), Munich Re 76bp (-1), Hannover Re 135bp (+2)
    * Utilities – RWE 87bp (0), EON 85bp (+2), EnBW 85bp (-2), VATFAL 69bp (-1)
    * Markit Evaluated Bonds – RWE Fin BV 6.5 2021 asset swap spread 95bp (0), EON Int Fin 5.75 2020 asw 129bp (0)


Filed under International Econnomic Politics, National Economic Politics

Deutsche Bank Establish New Muslime Branch

Deutsche Bank have formed Deutsche Gulf Finance, a joint venture Shariah-compliant home financing firm owned 40% by the bank’s Riyadh Branch and 60% by a group of Saudi-based buyers led by Fahad Abdullah Abdulaziz Al Rajhi. Deutsche Gulf Finance is to be run by Islamic Shariah laws.

“Islamic home finance continues to be an important part of Deutsche Bank’s global mortgage platform.”

Doug Naidus

The Company has an initial capitalization of approximately USD110 million, and at first will provide Shariah-compliant home financing for properties located in Saudi Arabia, with plans to expand its operations into Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait over time, according to Structured Finance News.

Deutsche Gulf Finance has commenced financing completed units as well as those under construction on individual lots or at real estate developments.

Deutsche Gulf Finance have comprehensive and customized policies as well as procedures covering all major aspects of housing finance operations and incorporating global inputs from Deutsche Bank, applicable Saudi law and regulations, and the highest Shariah standards, the bank says in the statement.

Special attention has been paid to ensure proper risk controls and oversight levels are maintained, it says.

Deutsche Gulf Finance’s launch comes at a pivotal time for consumer finance in Saudi Arabia.

Deutsche Bank research reported that the total outstanding home finance provided by the private sector in Saudi Arabia amounts to less than 1% of GDP compared with well above 50% in most developed countries, and around 6% in Kuwait and 7% in the UAE.

Deutsche Bank research estimated that Saudi Arabia will need 1.2 million in additional housing units by 2015. Additionally, based on market assumptions, it projected that when the new Saudi mortgage law is enacted, it will contribute to incremental demand of roughly 55,000 added units per year.

“We are excited to partner with Deutsche Bank and benefit from its global experience in housing finance,” Fahad Abdullah Al Rajhi says.

“Deutsche Gulf Finance will benchmark itself against international best practices and looks forward to contributing to the growth of home ownership in Saudi Arabia.”

“We are very pleased to announce the formation of Deutsche Gulf Finance, as Saudi Arabia is a key country in our emerging markets strategy, ” says Doug Naidus, managing director and global head of RMBS lending and trading at Deutsche.

“Islamic home finance continues to be an important part of Deutsche Bank’s global mortgage platform. Deutsche Bank’s global expertise coupled with the Al Rajhi family’s local prominence and experience make this an ideal and complementary business relationship.”

“The establishment of Deutsche Gulf Finance is an important milestone for Deutsche Bank’s presence in the Kingdom and signifies our commitment to broaden and deepen our presence in Saudi Arabia as well as our confidence that the Saudi home finance market will witness robust growth,” Jamal Al-Kishi, Deutsche Bank’s chief country officer in the Kingdom says.


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Filed under International Econnomic Politics, National Economic Politics