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EconoTwist's · A Twisted Mind, A Sharp Pen, A Helluva Story
A Bullish Bear Market
Målinger basert på spørreundersøkelser viser at optimismen i markedet er stor. Tekniske analyser viser derimot det motsatte.
Optimismen er fremdelse stor blant aktørene i aksjemarkedet, og det er ingen ting som tyder på at den blir mindre med det første.
Det er bemerkelsesverdig at optimismen kan være så stor samtidig som tekniske indikatorer viser at de negative kreftene (bear) er de sterkeste.
“Dumme” penger kjøper
Analyser som Guy M. Lender hos ARL Advisers LCC presenterer på nettstedet The Technical Take søndag, viser at det i første rekke er de “dumme pengene” som gjør de mest optimistiske plasseringene i markedet, mens de “smarte” forholder seg nøytrale.
“Dumb Money Indicator” ser etter ekstreme data fire forskjellige steder hvor investorene historisk sett har bommet med sine veddemål.
1. Investor Intelligence
2. Market Vane
3. American Association of Individual Investors
4. Put/Call-ratio
Her er ARL Advisers “Dumb Money Indicator” for siste uke:
“Smarte” penger er nøytrale
Med “smarte” penger mener vi vanligvis de store , proffer investorene.
Guy M. Lender sin “Smart Money Indicator” ser på tre forhold:
1. Forholdet mellom shortposisjoner holdt av private og spesialister.
2. Forholdet mellom spesialistenes shotposisjoner og den totale mengden av shotsalg.
3. Opsjonshandelen på aksjeindeksen Standard & Poor’s 100.
Her “Smart Money Indicator” for siste uke:
Innsiderne stikker
Ukens analyse fra ARL viser ellers at innsiderne fortsetter å kvitte seg med aksjer i egne selskaper i et ekstremt omfang.
Her er Lenders “InsiderScore Entire Market” for siste uke:
Negative signaler til tross; det er ingen ting av dette som kan tolkes som om at markedet vil falle med det første, snarere tvert i mot.
Det eneste vi kan konstantere med noenlunde sikkerhet er at risikoen i aksjemarkedet øker.
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