Fitch Ratings says in a statement that gross government borrowing for the EU15 countries will fall by 9.2% this year, to EUR 1.866 billion versus EUR 2.050 billion in 2010. Fitch expects that the run-off of government-guaranteed bank debt will start to eliminate a source of competition for sovereign debt, potentially easing sovereign financing conditions.
In 2010 European governments had the largest borrowing requirement for decades. In a new report, Fitch notes that 2011 euro area gross borrowing is down 13% year-on-year to EUR 1.607 billion, or 16.5% of GDP.
In absolute terms, it is largest in France (EUR 386 bn), Italy (EUR 381 bn) and Germany (EUR 292 bn).
Overall, gross borrowing has fallen y-o-y for most European governments.
Denmark, Greece, and Portugal are the exceptions.
“Fitch expects net borrowing by central governments across Europe to fall sharply in 2011 as governments implement budget cuts,” Douglas Renwick, Director of Fitch’s Sovereign team, says in a statement.
“The dramatic rise in short-term debt issuance by EU15 countries seen in 2009 has also started to unwind, with short-term debt falling 11.2% year-on-year as of December 2010. As a result, medium and long-term debt maturities are up 13% year-on-year in 2011, partly reflecting higher public debt stocks,” Robert Shearman adds. Shearman is co-author of the report and member of Fitch’s Sovereign team.
Although the marginal cost of funding increased for ‘peripheral’ euro area governments (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain), yields declined for the EU15 as a whole, on an annual average y-o-y basis, to 3.5% in 2010 from 3.7% in 2009.
The report notes that by maintaining the average duration of their debt, peripheral countries are slowing the feed-through of higher yields to their effective rate of interest.
Fitch expects that the run-off of government-guaranteed bank debt (EUR 242 billion in 2011) will start to eliminate a source of competition for sovereign debt, potentially easing sovereign financing conditions.
(Note: Fitch defines gross borrowing as net borrowing plus redemptions on medium and long-term debt plus the stock of short-term debt at the end of the previous year, which will need to be rolled over at least once during the current year).
Here’s a copy of the report, entitled “European : Steps in the Right Direction”
- UPDATE 2-Fitch cuts Greek rating to junk, outlook negative (reuters.com)
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