Equities: A Reason For Consern

The market has obviously moved its focus away from the earnings and is now closing in the on the FED meeting Wednesday – the expected launch of QE – and the US labor market report on Friday. So far, it has been a strong earnings season, but there are at least one reason to be concerned.

“Most companies have so far been very reluctant in giving any guidance as to how they expect the sales in 2011 to perform. And this should raise concern.”

Christian Tegllund Blaabjerg


There are  few earnings releases of importance Monday, but tomorrow we have some major releases that have potential to move the market. In broader terms, markets have priced most of the earnings results in by now, and it has been a surprisingly strong earnings season with massive surprises to the upside and growth in terms of EPS, but also  remarkably on the sales side.

“The surprise in terms of sales is flat, but the average growth of almost 10% in sales year-over-year is good news. The less good thing is that most companies have so far been very reluctant in giving any guidance as to how they expect the sales in 2011 to perform. And this should raise concern,” market strategist Christian Blaabjerg at Saxo Bank writes in Monday’s Wake-Up Call.

“We have a very busy week ahead of us and we start out with US ISM Manufacturing report day. We expect the index to decline to 53 in October (consensus: 54) from 54.4 as the growth in the manufacturing sector slows. This will also bring the national index more in line with the regional reports, which has been signalling weaker ISM Manufacturing for quite a few months now; and they still do despite the mostly positive regional reports released so far for October,” Blaabjerg notes.

Chinese PMI figures rose to 54.7 and 54.8 in October from 53.8 and 52.9, respectively, which have fuelled risk appetite in the Asian session.

It is the fastest growth in manufacturing in six months in China, driven by higher input prices.

Christian Blaabjerg

“This suggests that inflation will rise even faster in the coming months and could fuel speculation of more rate hikes by the PBoC,” Saxo Bank comments.

The US economy grew 2% QoQ (annualised) in the third quarter.

Private consumption grew 2.6%, which is the fastest growth rate recorded since 4Q2006.

“This contributed 1.8%-points to GDP, while also inventories – as expected – contributed handsomely by 1.4%-points. In fact, without inventories and government spending, GDP would have declined by 0.1%,” Blaabjerg points out.

Today’s Watchlist:

 

GMT Event Saxo Bank Consensus Previous
08:30 SZ SVME-PMI (OCT) 59.3 59.7
09:30 UK PMI Manufacturing (OCT) 53.0 53.4
12:30 US Personal Income MoM (SEP) 0.0% 0.2% 0.5%
12:30 US Personal Spending MoM (SEP) 0.5% 0.4% 0.4%
14:00 US ISM Manufacturing (OCT) 53.0 54.0 54.4
14:00 US ISM Prices Paid (OCT) 70.0 70.5
14:00 US Construction Spending MoM (SEP) -0.3% -0.5% 0.4%

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