Roubini: "The Worst Is Yet To Come"

“Think the worst is over? Wrong.” professor Nouriel Roubini writes in his latest commentary. According to Mr. Roubini the U.S. unemployment rate will peak at 11% at the end of 2010, and will remain at high levels for at least 2 years. The damage to the ecomomy will be “extensive and severe” unless bold policy action is undertaken now.

 

 

“As a result of these terribly weak labor markets, we can expect weak recovery of consumption and economic growth; larger budget deficits; greater delinquencies in residential and commercial real estate and greater fall in home and commercial real estate prices; greater losses for banks and financial institutions on residential and commercial real estate mortgages, and in credit cards, auto loans and student loans and thus a greater rate of failures of banks; and greater protectionist pressures.”

Nouriel Roubini


(Article in Norwegian, link to original post in English).

nouriel-roubini.jpg

Tror du det verste er over? Feil, skriver professor Nouriel Roubini i en kommentar. – Skadene vil bli omfattende og betydelige om ikke modige politiske tiltak gjøres nå, mener Roubini.

“Think the worst is over? Wrong.”

Det fastslår professor Nouriel Roubini i en kommentar publisert i Daily News og på RGMs hjemmeside.

– Forholdene i det amerikanske arbeidsmarkedet er forferdelige, og blir bare verre. Mens den offisielle ledigheten allerede er 10,2 prosent, forsvant ytterlige 200 000 jobber i oktober. Inkluderes deltidsansatte og sykemeldte ligger tallet på ”whopping” 17,5 prosent, påpeker Roubini.

– Selv om 200 000 ferre arbeidsplasser per måned er bedre enn 700 000 som i januar, er fallet i sysselsettingen per måned over gjennomsnittet på 150 000 i de forrige resesjonene, tilføyer han.

– Husk også på at i den siste resesjonen som endte i november 2001, fortsatte sysselsettingen å falle i ett og et halvt år etter, frem til juni 2003. Det samme gjelder for resesjonen i 1990 til 1991.

Høy ledighet i minst 2 år

Nouriel Roubini mener vi derfor kan regne med at ledigheten i USA fortsetter å stige frem til slutten av 2010.

“Based on my best judgment, it is most likely that the unemployment rate will peak close to 11% and will remain at a very high level for two years or more.”

“This is very bad news but we must face facts. Many of the lost jobs are gone forever, including construction jobs, finance jobs and manufacturing jobs. Recent studies suggest that a quarter of U.S. jobs are fully out-sourceable over time to other countries.”

Må handles nå

Roubini kommer med en sterk oppfordring til politikere og myndigheter om at det må gjøres noe nå, ellers kan skadevirkningen i økonomien bli omfattende og betydelige, skriver han.

“As a result of these terribly weak labor markets, we can expect weak recovery of consumption and economic growth; larger budget deficits; greater delinquencies in residential and commercial real estate and greater fall in home and commercial real estate prices; greater losses for banks and financial institutions on residential and commercial real estate mortgages, and in credit cards, auto loans and student loans and thus a greater rate of failures of banks; and greater protectionist pressures.”

“The damage will be extensive and severe unless bold policy action is undertaken now.”

Nouriel Roubini er professor i økonomi ved Stern School of Business at New York University og styreleder i Roubini Global Economics.

Les hele kommentaren til professor Nouriel Roubini her. (Full article in English).

2 Comments

Filed under International Econnomic Politics, National Economic Politics

2 responses to “Roubini: "The Worst Is Yet To Come"

  1. Jeg har ment at skrive om noget som dette på min webside, og du gav mig en idé. Cheers.

  2. Pingback: Today’s Must Read: Dr. Doom speaks | Pundit Country